For the innovation of computer programs to try to to the analyzing in their mind, today s handicappers and sports bettors can search for an angle, trend, or recurring situation in the click from a mouse. Conversely, we “old school” era handicappers originally was required spend many pain-staking hours day by day or each and every week, manually compiling and studying comparisons and past statistics. Over my 35-year handicapping career, I ve seen and studied about every system, angle, and trend that dropped the pike, but have always used them as one amongst my many tools for determining winners.
Are trends and systems always reliable enough to lay down your money on just the wager in the sports book and anticipate to win? Numerous solution is “no”. Although an important tool in handicapping, trends and systems are found driven by recurring outcomes of past performances in given situations. To provide an example, a hugely popular system sega s used by many football bettors within the, ended up being to always stay with the Green Bay Packers inside your home on the months of December and January.
That play became even stronger in the event the team above was hosting was from your warm climate region, or took part in a domed stadium inside your home. The reasoning is not hard; the climate in Green Bay rrs extremely cold whilst in winter time, and in most cases times falls way below zero degrees from the wind chill factor. The Packers were seemed to practicing and playing through this weather, however it seemed to limbs an automated edge over any team from your warm climate or dome. However, most average bettors don t realize that oddsmakers also know this, with already taken it into account.
Thus, in the event the Packers were statistically, suppose i told you a 3 point better team at the given game, the oddsmakers would likely have the cloths line set at minus 6 ½, knowing a top tastes bettors would certainly automatically make Pack and lay ideal number of. Other bettors uses a deeper look, discover out way beyond just the teams and placement, and hopefully free you from paying plus side of this inflated number, evening out the wagering. Ironically, this Green Bay cold theory do not need shown a nice gain in the last 10 seasons, had one bet on every Packer home game who had fallen into this situation and point in time.
Usually there are barrels of other similar systems per wagering on football in addition to other major sports. Here i will discuss another demonstration of a common one that s used more on the NFL compared to college football games. Assume a person has a home underdog that plays on just the different field surface than their favored visitor. Without isolating or considering all other factors, the domestic dog is considered to generally regarded as good play in almost situation.
The simple reasoning would be the home team is believed to place forth an enhanced effort in your home crowd fans. In theory, if they have the advantages of the visitor playing on a surface that could be unfamiliar for them, the play becomes stronger on the mind of this average bettor. To start with you simply jump in and bet all those situations next year, remember the 2008 season and then the Detroit Lions, to provide an example. After going 4-0 on the pre-season, they was crowned the first team in NFL history to spend 0-16 on the regular season. They hosted 8 games past year in addition to 6 these games, the visiting team was playing on a surface with the exception that what remedy they had for their home field.
Yet, the Lions lost by a median score of 15-37 inside your home past year but not once got approximately over the spread. They hosted a 16-20 loss with the Minnesota Vikings, but that game didn t fit into this program, considering the Vikings also play at the domed stadium with the exact same design of surface considering the Lions. Reality, had one put this “home dog/different turf” system into play on the men on the Motor City past year, the actual outcome could have been too expensive, losing every wager. For which it s worth and to their credit, the Lions actually performed better touring past year, losing by a median score of only 19-28, in preference to losing utilizing a 22-point average margin inside your home.
Trends and systems may be a valuable tool, for that reason used by almost any serious handicapper, also by many average sports bettors. However, remember that trends are derived from background sooner or later in time, what arises must come down. Generally look in the overall dish, consider all your other variables, but not think of a wagering decision driven by just a few things, if it s trends as well as other factors.